My New Gambling Addiction: Betting on the News

Newspapers are evil. Ten years ago I decided, every time I want to read, I’d read a book instead of a newspaper.

Not to be snobbish. But newspapers are just full of sh*t. I know. I wrote for five of them.

People say to me, “That’s stupid. How do you get informed?”

What?

I’m a firm believer that the best way to make the world a better place is to become a better person.

Be kind to the people around you, be healthy, be creative, and don’t waste energy trying to control the things you can’t control.

But now I have a better way to get informed. A more fun way.

I gamble.

I log onto PredictIt.org.

It’s a prediction market.

You can buy “shares” in world events.

For instance, “Will Donald Trump win the presidency in 2020?”

Right now you can buy shares of “Yes” to that question for 41 cents. If Donald Trump wins, you will get 100 cents for every share you own.

So if you buy 1,000 shares today for 41 cents, you spend $410. If Donald Trump wins, you will get $1,000 deposited into your account. You will gain $590.

But even better, you don’t have to wait until the end of the bet.

Like a stock in the stock market, you can sell your shares at any point.

So if it looks like Donald Trump is moving up in the polls, then shares of “Yes” will tick higher. Maybe if he doesn’t get impeached, the shares will go to 50 cents and you can sell for a 25% gain even before the first primary.

Because I just started, the maximum I could deposit was $1,000.

I started looking at all the questions. And then something interesting happened.

I got addicted. And I became informed.

Every time I placed a bet, I’d have (as Nassim Taleb would call it) “skin in the game.”

Since I had money on the line, I wanted to learn more.

I didn’t read newspapers but I did my research. I never once went to an online newspaper.

Below I describe the bets I currently have and why I made them.

Then I summarize what I feel are the rules for good gambling (in stocks, in a casino, in a prediction market like this).

For instance, Rule #3: Keep emotions out of it.

Here are my bets:

WILL VICE-PRESIDENT PENCE BREAK 2 OR FEWER TIE-BREAKERS IN 2019?

I didn’t make this bet but considered it.

In the Constitution, if the Senate has a tie vote, the vice-president comes in and breaks the tie.

“2 or fewer” would cost me 87 cents a share.

Research:

So far, he’s done none in 2019. He did quite a bit in 2018 so on that basis it is possible he could do more than two in the next 2.5 months. 87 cents seems fair.

Any more info I can gather? I looked up all the votes in the Senate so far in 2019. I used Senate.gov.

Most votes in the Senate have been pretty partisan, meaning Republicans all vote together and Democrats all vote together. If this remains the case, Pence will have ZERO tiebreakers

Almost all the tie-breakers by Pence involved nominations for obscure government jobs or judgeships.

I looked up all the nominations pending. Nothing seemed controversial.

But… impeachment could change all of this.

87 cents seemed fair and I didn’t really see where I had an unfair advantage. Plus I didn’t want to tie up 87 cents for every dollar.

No bet.

WILL ELIZABETH WARREN BE PRESIDENT IN 2020?

I bet “No” for 67 cents.

Why?

When I bet, she was (maybe she still is) the frontrunner.

I looked back to 2016, 2008, 1992, 1988 (Democrats), etc.

Whoever the frontrunner was before the primaries often had a lot of trouble staying consistently the frontrunner.

Even Clinton in 1992 had to deal with scandals. And Barak in 2008 was not the frontrunner at this time. Nor was Trump in 2016.

All the fire is aimed at the frontrunner.

My plan is to take this bet off either after Iowa or New Hampshire, depending on how Warren does.

I bet 67 cents on “No.” Currently I am up (shares trading for 73 cents).

I could sell now for a 10-cent profit but I think “Working Class” Warren with a $12 million net worth will have some difficulties in Iowa.

[Again, keep emotions out of it.]

ANDREW YANG WILL BE PRESIDENT IN 2020

Andrew Yang is a long shot in the polls but he’s been gaining, going from 1% to more than 3% to even 5% in many states.

I bet 9 cents. With shares trading at 7 cents, I am down.

Still, I bet slightly higher on this than on Warren because I thought he would uptick after the last debate. He didn’t.

I still think he might uptick because he has raised so much more money than expected.

After the next debate I may take this bet off.

BREXIT WON’T HAPPEN BY 11/1

I don’t know anything about Brexit, other than that everyone has different agendas and nobody is agreeing.

Brexit refers to the British plan to leave the European Union.

Boris Johnson has staked his reputation on getting out of the EU by 11/1. Hence this timeline on the bet.

I bet “No” for 73 cents and it’s currently at 77 cents, so I’m a little up.

But it’s been a wild ride (I bet a little over a week ago).

My assumption was politicians don’t really care when they “stake their reputation,” so his promise was meaningless.

Northern Ireland and Great Britain have the exact opposite agendas. Ireland is historically a trade-free zone, but if Great Britain suddenly does not become a trade-free zone with the EU, that could affect the economy.

So my guess is that this is impossible for the U.K. Parliament to agree on easily, particularly since (as my research told me) Johnson’s coalition doesn’t have the majority of votes in Parliament.

He did come up with an agreement that the EU agreed with.

So I was way down on my bet for a few days until the U.K. Parliament demanded an extension to making a deal.

Now I am slightly up, with 10 days left.

He can also illegally take the U.K. out of the EU in what is called a “no-deal” Brexit.

This would be illegal and Parliament does not want this to happen.

BUT, I hedged…

WILL THERE BE A NO-DEAL BREXIT IN 2019?

I paid 10 cents for “YES”.

This is a hedge. There’s a slight chance Parliament will not back Brexit but Boris Johnson will pull the U.K. out anyway to keep his promise.

Hence, a no-deal exit. I have 10 cents on the downside and 90 cents on the upside.

I have 27 cents on the upside that there will be no Brexit at all by 11/1.

It’s looking like the only way for a Brexit to happen is if Johnson does a no-deal exit. Then I win 90 cents per share and lose 73 cents, winning 17 cents per share on a total 83 cents bet. A return of 20% in just a few weeks.

I knew nothing about Brexit before any of this. It’s the thrill of the hunt that forced me to get informed.

IMPEACHMENT: WILL DONALD TRUMP BE IMPEACHED IN 2019?

I paid 44 cents for shares of “No.” Currently trading at 54 cents so I am about 24% up in a few weeks.

Again, this has nothing to do with personal opinions or agendas.

I think I have an unfair advantage in that many people are betting their emotions.

But, still, it forced me to understand the laws a bit better.

1) Trump claims that the House is acting against the Constitution because they did not vote for an official impeachment inquiry as they did in 1998, 1973, and 1868.

Trump is wrong. The Constitution doesn’t specify how an impeachment inquiry can begin.

But, since there is a precedent, this might slow things down if the House wants to step carefully.

I am making the bet that this confuses the issue enough to bring it into 2020, in which case I win the bet.

2) An impeachment is not a legal hearing. It’s not due process. It’s totally partisan.

But it’s dangerous for it to be partisan.

It could show that whenever the House has a majority that’s different from the party of the president, then impeachment is possible.

So they try to make it as legal as possible.

They have to show there’s a reasonable case for a “high crime and misdemeanor” (a term that has never been defined on purpose).

The question is: Was there a “quid pro quo” in the president’s phone call with the Ukrainian president?

I don’t know the answer. But we do know a few things:

a. There was never a point where Trump said, “If you do this I’ll do this.”

b. The Ukrainian president, at the time of the call, never even knew that $400 million in military aid was being held back. So no quid pro quo was even possible unless he knew the aid was in jeopardy.

c. The more the House pushes on this issue, the more it seems to be hurting Biden’s chances for president.

d. The House is afraid to repeat a Newt Gingrich-style backlash that happened after Clinton’s impeachment (although Clinton’s approval ratings were higher).

e. Pelosi now is bringing back Putin as a possible reason to impeach, which shows me she’s not as confident anymore in her original reasons for impeachment.

Remember, this is not “Should Trump be impeached?” Nor is this, “Will he be impeached?”

Emotions are not part of this.

I wouldn’t bet on “Will Trump be impeached in 2020?”

Technically, the House can hold a vote today and impeach him.

But for the reasons described above, my guess is they won’t do that before December 31.

They are going to take time trying to build a super solid case. And my guess is, they won’t do it by January 1.

That said, this issue is holding steady. I bet 44 cents a share on a “No” and it’s currently trading at 52 cents.

I’m slightly up but it seems random at this point. Once 2020 gets closer this will start to trade like a stock option and will be much more volatile.

My theory is that starting November, every day there is no impeachment will send shares of this bet higher and I will get out of it by mid-November around 60-70 cents.

WILL HILLARY RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2020?

I hate this bet because I bet 84 cents on “No” and so can lose the entire 84 cents immediately if she even files an exploratory committee with the Federal Election Commission.

Still, the fact that we are almost at the Iowa caucuses, questions about her health, and the recent back and forth with Tulsi Gabbard (showing she doesn’t have a unified base in the Democratic party, which would put her at risk of losing primaries) makes me think she wants to be kingmaker more than king.

I don’t think this is a good risk/reward bet. But I think I’m safe until Iowa.

Once the Iowa caucus happens and we inch towards a clearer view of the primaries, my guess is this will go from 84 cents to 90+ cents and I will take the bet off.

WHO WILL BE THE NEXT SUPREME COURT JUDGE TO LEAVE?

I bet 7 cents a share on Stephen Breyer. Currently flat on the trade.

Ruth Bader Ginsburg is first at 74 cents, which is maybe reasonable based on her age (86) and recent health issues.

Stephen Breyer is 81 years old, so on actuarial tables alone, he has about a 19% chance of dying in the next year.

This is a morbid way to look at it and he has no known health issues, nor do I want him to die.

BUT… 7 cents compared to actuarial odds of 19% seems like a wide spread.

So I made this bet, expecting to lose, but for a 7-cent bet and 93-cent upside (1,350%) it’s not an unreasonable bet to make given the statistics.

It’s not about winning every bet but having high expected value.

5% GDP GROWTH IN 2020?

The rules on this one: “Real” growth (subtracting out inflation) of at least 1.25% (5% annualized) for at least one quarter between now and the end of 2020.

I bet “Yes” for 10 cents. Currently down at 8 cents.

I like these bets with lopsided risk/reward (10-cent bet to win a 90-cent profit).

I have many ways to win between now and the end of 2020.

First off, it’s been over five years since we’ve had that kind of growth in the economy. In Q3 of 2014 there was 5.5% annualized growth. The last few quarters have been roughly 2%, 3%, 1%.

So why make this bet?

A) The lobsided risk/reward. If I simply have the odds of 5% growth that we’ve had over the past 20 quarters (two out of the 20, making 10 cents a reasonable amount per share) then my bet is a fair bet but not a no-brainer bet.

B) We’re going into an election year so Trump will, legally or illegally, do everything he can to make people feel like the economy is doing great.

We’ve already seen him do this in three ways:

1) Tax repatriation: Incentives for corporations to bring back cash they have abroad. Typically companies don’t want to do this because there are tax consequences.

But in recent tax bills, these penalties have been greatly reduced and hundreds of billions of dollars have come back to the U.S.

This money will get spent over the next 18 months.

With a GDP of $15 trillion and a potential for hundreds of billions to be spent, this alone could cause GDP to blip above 5%

2) Bank deregulation: Local banks have been deregulated this past year. Meaning they can lend out more money.

In the past year, according to the Federal Reserve database, since this deregulation has occurred, it seems like the money supply has increased. If this continues, I think we’ll get close to 5%.

Again, we just have to get close in the next six months and my bet should be in the money and I can take it off.

If, by chance, a surprise number hits and we surpass 5% in a quarter, then I take 100 cents off.

3) Rate cuts: Due to (possibly illegal) pressure from Trump, the Fed has been cutting rates.

With low rates, there is less incentive for people to keep money in the bank, so they spend.

The more they spend, the higher GDP goes. Consumer spending data is released every month. If I get one good month, my bet will be in the money and I may take all or part of it off.

***

I love games. So instead of reading boring newspapers, I’m making the news a game.

The key to good betting is not to be right all the time, but to have a strategy where the “expected value” of your bets in the long run is positive. [See Annie Duke’s book “Thinking in Probabilities” for more on this and listen to my podcast with Annie.]

I love the idea of these prediction markets because it lets me be competitive, stay informed, and practice that gambling muscle without too much risk.

THE SKILLS OF GAMBLING:

A) Understanding statistics

B) Information is power (this is how you get an unfair advantage)

C) Removing emotions

D) Focusing on expected value more than winning each bet. For instance, I don’t expect to win the Supreme Court bet but my odds have a higher expected value than the size of my bet

E) Understanding psychology. People feel very emotional towards Trump, impeachment, etc. So my guess is the bet odds are skewed as a result

F) Having fun. Else, what’s the point?

Maybe the world is one giant information stock market.

Based on information, you invest time, money, opportunities.

Or maybe I’m just an addict.

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Altucher’s Book Club: How to Live to the Age of 200

When you land in Dallas, they hand out conspiracy theories at the airport.

JFK was shot in the throat. Then shot in the head. But who did it?

On the Uber from the airport, the Uber driver told us, “JFK switched his route at the last minute so THEY called ahead to see if anyone was around to shoot the president.”

Really? Lee Harvey Oswald just happened to pick up the phone and say, “I’ll do it!”

Weird also that if you Google “The Grassy Knoll” in Dallas, there are actually 298 reviews on Google Maps. Who reviews a bunch of weeds?

Outside my hotel room I saw the X that marked the spot JFK was shot. I walked over there to find out more.

There was a guy who had maps, diagrams, videos. He explained the #truth to me.

“Three shooters, none of them were Oswald, and the FBI was using the mafia to get the job done. Lee Harvey Oswald was having lunch at the time. He didn’t do it.”<

All of this is to say: if you want to live longer, don’t be president of the United States

BUT DO read this week’s book club recommendation.

In this video, I describe exactly what parts of the book I am now personally using.

I don’t care if I live to be 200. But I do care that I have quality of life. Life should be fun, if at all possible.

(Click the image to watch the video.)

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The 13 Things I Regret Not Telling Her

“Playing with your kids will make you feel better,” my mother told me. My grandmother told me, “Play with your daughters. It will calm you down.”

I had been depressed for precisely 19 months at that point.

I couldn’t get out of bed in the morning. I was four months away from going broke.

I would walk my daughter to the park after the market closed. Her tiny legs would get tired as the sun left one purple blister still in the sky.

Can I reach back in time right now?

Can I lift up my hand, weighed down by terror? Can I lift her again and carry her home?

Her 3/4-inch fingers, curled in anticipation. Can I reach back in time and feel the tops of those fingers?

I can’t.

Did playing with her help me?

It didn’t.

—

One night there was hail outside and it sounded like bullets. I woke up and my daughter was standing in the dark next to my bed.

“I can’t sleep,” she said.

Her mind was racing. We walked downstairs. We sat on the couch. I told her a story.

How I also often wake up at night, my brain a slushy mess.

I’m sorry, I wanted to say.

I was so tired. I wanted to go back to sleep. “Lie in bed,” I told her, “and count to 100.”

And I’d sit there with her and watch her eyes close and her mouth whisper out the numbers.

Sometimes she’d fall asleep.

But this night, this night I remember, we both stayed up and listened to the hail. Wondering what would happen next.

—

Things I wish I had told her when she was young (things I wish someone had told me):

• FLY KITES as much as possible. While they are in the air, the ground will feel far away.
• NEVER read the newspaper. The people you love, the things you care about, can’t be found there.
• DON’T OUTSOURCE your self-esteem to others. It’s hard enough for them to manage their own, let alone yours.
• SAY NO to things you don’t want to do. Else, you are just working out the terms of your slavery.
• FREEDOM is something you can have right this second. The prison door is open. But if you don’t leave, then this moment is in chains forever.
• DIVERSIFY everything in your life, including the people you listen to for advice. Including me, your father. Especially me.
• LEARN lots of games. They turn you into a hard-core killer without you ever having to hurt someone. They are glimpses into other worlds when this world is on fire.
• NEVER LISTEN to anyone who says, “You can’t do that!” Those are the people who can’t do it.
• LAUGH at the little things. So you can learn to laugh at everything.
• LIFE GOES BY FAST, but there’s no rush. You have to put on a parachute before you jump out of a plane.
• PREPARATION is the key to having good luck. People will spitefully accuse you of “luck.” They will resent it. Try to ignore them.
• KINDNESS to others is the best way to be kind to yourself.
• EXPERIMENT every day to uncover the hidden. Creativity is the invitation into the extraordinary.

—

I woke up last night and there was a storm but no daughter. I missed comforting her. The past 20 years I missed so much.

There’s going to be a day when she has to do it, this, all on her own. This thing. This life.

A night when she wakes up and everything in her brain is rushing, speeding, burning.

Without anyone to sit quietly next to her. To breathe with her to 100.

While her mind speeds faster than she ever thought possible.

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Good or Bad: Monogamy

Strong opinions are like a disease. You get one, then your friends get the same one (else, according to the rules of groupthink they are no longer friends) and so on.

I hate opinions. There always seems to be someone smarter than me who has the opposite opinion.

But I’m skeptical. And I like to know things. And think. And learn. And study. AND be entertained. And laugh.

I’m launching a new podcast soon with my friend and bestselling author A.J. Jacobs called GOOD or BAD.

We take topics—dogs, monogamy, cars, government, billionaires, tipping, democracy, cosmetic surgery, etc.—and argue:

“Is this good or bad?”

Sometimes we have a conclusion. Sometimes not.

Here is a teaser for one of the episodes: GOOD or BAD: Monogamy.

If you have suggestions for “good or bad” topics, please let me know in the comments.

Or, if you have opinions on monogamy, leave them in the comments and I hope we read out some comments in the episode.

Enjoy!

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10 Things Everyone Got Wrong About Dave Chappelle’s Recent Netflix Special

Will Smith desperately needed advice. He was terrified about something he was about to do.

So he said, “I have to visit the master.” He called Dave Chappelle.

His challenge: to do three minutes of standup comedy at a comedy club.

I get it. When I had to do six minutes the first time, I thought I was going to DIE.

It’s a different experience. I’m not sure why. It’s not the same as a funny talk. It’s not the same as being funny in front of your friends. It’s not being the class clown.

People are judging you. And they are rejecting you or liking you on a deep personal level. I think. I don’t know. Maybe thats just what it feels like.

So Will Smith called Dave Chappelle. He needed help.

—

One Dave Chappelle story: He randomly went to a club, performed, and then hung out with the comedians afterwards.

At one in the morning, one comedian suggested, “Let’s go to a party.”

Dave Chappelle said, “Let’s go back to the club, there’s another show about to happen. We can go up on stage.”

The others said, “Dave! There will be six people in the audience. Let’s go to the party.”

Dave said, “You’re not going to get better at comedy going to a party. You’ll get better at the club and going on stage.”

So they went back to the club. And he killed for six people.

—

Dave said to Will Smith, “This is the most important rule…”

Dave said, “It’s better to be interesting than funny.”

—

If you read the news, you’d think Dave Chappelle’s career is over after his recent special, “Sticks and Stones.”

According to the various critics (I read about a dozen or more articles and they all said the same thing):

“He was unfunny,” “boring,” “tone deaf to suffering,” “wrong about Michael Jackson,” “stuck in the last century.”

For awhile on Rotten Tomatoes, he had a ZERO percent critic’s score.

People HATED him. People said, “His career is over!”

I didn’t understand. I watched the same special they did. But maybe I didn’t. So I watched it again. And again. And again.

10 things everyone got wrong…

“UNFUNNY”

Not sure why a critic who wasn’t there and wasn’t a comedian would say this.

The evidence is the opposite.

Everyone in the audience was laughing the ENTIRE time.

I’ve seen some specials where there really is nobody laughing for some jokes And that’s after enormous preparation and hundreds of performances testing each joke.

But in “Sticks and Stones,” people were laughing throughout.

It’s also one thing if they are only laughing at the punchlines. But they were laughing the entire time.

Other evidence?

When the Rotten Tomatoes critics score was zero percent, the audience score was 99%.

“BORING”

I’ve seen more articles written about this comedy special than any other comedy special.

Just judging by the number of articles written about this one special (and zero articles written about pretty much every other special ever), clearly the critics didn’t find this “boring” so I’m surprised they wrote that.

“OLD FASHIONED”

Some critics said he is old fashioned.

I own a comedy club.

I see five to 10 comedians perform almost every night. This is just my anecdotal experience but many of the topics he broached are common topics TODAY for comedians in clubs.

And he took it five steps further, gave an opinion, gave the opposite opinion, made it funny, fought for both sides.

But got destroyed for only one side. His point: “Cancel culture” lets you express only one side.

“INSENSITIVE”

Nobody really knows what comedy is.

Just when I think I have an idea, someone says something to me that blows my mind and makes me rethink what comedy is.

But I will offer an approach: It has to be funny (not everyone agrees), and it usually unveils a hidden truth about a topic that we all relate to.

Or offers a point of view that we can all relate to an maybe haven’t thought about in that exact way.

Or deals with many valid points that come into conflict and tries to figure out, onstage, which feels authentic to him.

Perhaps this gives the audience permission to think more broadly than they were used to.

I don’t know. Nobody knows.

“CANCEL CULTURE”

Dave Chappelle says he’s going to do impressions.

Even though he’s done voices in almost every act I’ve ever seen him in, he announces he doesn’t do impressions often and he implicitly asks the audience if it’s OK if he does some impressions.

Genius!

Two things about that:

1) Of course they will shout and cheer and say yes.

2) By giving them the choice (even though he knows what they will choose), the audience will feel more like they are in charge and are then more likely to enjoy what is coming next.

He takes on a voice that sounds stupid and says, “Uh, duh. Hey! Durr! If you do anything wrong in your life, duh, and I find out about it, I’m gonna try to take everything away from you, and I don’t care when I find out. Could be today, tomorrow, 15, 20 years from now. If I find out, you’re duh-finished.”

He asks the audience who he was doing an impression of. A couple of people yelled out, “Trump!’

And then he said, “It’s YOU! That’s what the audience sounds like to me.”

It’s his first real joke in the special. Everyone laughs.

And then people did exactly what he predicted. They tried to cancel him.

100s of articles trashed Chappelle on the topics below. And not a single one mentioned this joke.

He was funny. And dead-on accurate. That’s comedy.

MICHAEL JACKSON

He said, “I don’t think Michael Jackson did it” about molesting the two kids featured in the “Leaving Neverland” documentary.

He even said, “I know more than half the people in this room have been molested in their lives. But it wasn’t no goddamn Michael Jackson, was it? This kid got his dick sucked by the King of Pop. All we get is awkward Thanksgivings for the rest of our lives.”

SHOCKING! WHAT?!

Even the families of the two kids came out and said his comments were insensitive.

The critics were all outraged.

But… the critics seemed to ignore his very next line:

“But you know what? Even if he did do it…”

Implying that his opinion could easily be wrong. So he was going to take a look at both sides of the story.

Forget about the humor in this. He brought up several questions that were on his mind.

He’s not saying molestation is good.

But more importantly, he’s asking the question, with all that’s going on in the world, did we really need another shock-and-awe documentary about a guy who’s been dead for 10 years?

He said, “Michael Jackson has been dead for 10 years and [he] has two new cases. And if you haven’t watched that documentary… uh, then I’m begging you, don’t watch it. It’s f*cking gross. I felt like HBO was sticking baby dicks in my ears for four hours straight. Really nasty sh*t. I don’t want to know all these things.”

He’s basically saying, “There have been a billion articles about this and the guy is dead. We can move on already. There are more important things.”

“Ls, Gs, Bs, Ts, Qs”

A few specials ago, Chappelle made some jokes about transgender people. He got a lot of criticism.

In the next special, he talked about it and told a story where he slept with someone who was transgender.

It was a funny story and shocked some people in the audience (“Oh get over it, I was just borrowing friction.”).

In this special, he mentions that transgender people don’t like him but he still thinks the whole concept is funny even though people have every right to do whatever they want to do.

He then went into the history of the LGBTQ+ movement, correctly pointing out that the “Ls” and “Gs” and “Ts” didn’t always get along.

I looked at a 2014 article in OUT magazine, which had the following quote about another article written in the 1980s about the movement: “At the time, a gay pundit wrote a stinging magazine article wondering why lesbians were so involved in ACT UP.”

Chappelle is making the deeper point that these groups are becoming more unified, but they haven’t always been that way, and they occasionally still have different issues that concern them.

Which is normal for any movement. Chappelle is saying that being unified is fine, but don’t fall for groupthink. Individuals still might have issues that differ from the group.

He says about friends of his who are gay, “All of them, 100% of them, all have told me f*ckin’ horror stories about the sh*t they had to go through just to be themselves. Crazy, crazy stories.”

He also says, “But the Ts hate my f*ckin’ guts. And I don’t blame ’em. It’s not their fault. It’s mine. I can’t stop telling jokes about these n*ggas. I don’t want to write these jokes, but I just can’t stop!”

He’s taking responsibility. He thinks it’s funny. And he admits not everyone does.

#MeToo

In his last special, Dave Chappelle specifically said he was in support of everything the #MeToo movement was saying.
But they needed to be careful on their tactics.

Not bad advice for any social movement throughout history. MLK and Malcolm X, for instance, had very different views on how the Civil Rights movement should be conducted.

And only later, when Malcolm X was convinced a more peaceful approach was called for (and then was killed by former followers for this change in approach) did the two sides start to unify. (Credit to Ta-Nehisi Coates for explaining all of this in “Between the World and Me.”)

In this special, Chappelle points out that since his last special, the lack of a unified agenda has undermined the exact rights that women are hoping for:

“What the f*ck is your agenda, ladies? Is– Is sexism dead? No, in fact, the opposite happened. I said it was gonna get worse, and they said I was tone deaf. But eight states, including your state, have passed the most stringent antiabortion laws this nation has seen since Roe v. Wade.”

Not everyone might agree with his opinion. But it’s a valid opinion. And borrows from the histories of just about every serious political movement of all time.

LOUIS C.K.

He says:

“Louis C.K. was a very good friend of mine before he died in that terrible masturbation accident. And it was his room. You read the story. He was masturbating in his own room. That’s where you supposed to masturbate. … And he came on his own stomach. There it is. What is the threat? Have any women ever seen a guy that just came on his own stomach? This is the least threatening m*****f***** the Earth has ever seen. All you see is shame in their face and…”

He basically makes fun of Louis C.K.

Is he right about the “threat” part? Or is that just a joke? Do we have to agree to think it’s funny? Is it dangerous to joke about?

He’s raising the point. It’s a point many people have raised.

But he is also posing the larger question: Are we allowed to say when someone’s career is over?

Certainly the market is. If nobody wants to see Louis C.K., nobody will show up for his acts.

I’ve seen Louis C.K. do a drop-in at a comedy club. He was so funny I thought I would have to leave the room my stomach was in so much pain. There were men and women (and Chris Rock) in the room.

Everyone was laughing. The next day, the newspaper said, “Nobody was laughing.”

I was there! Everyone was laughing. Nobody booed even though it was a total surprise.

Individuals make up the market. That’s how people will vote, despite any articles by the critics.

ANTHONY BOURDAIN’S SUICIDE

“Good people of Atlanta, we must never forget that Anthony Bourdain killed himself,” Chappelle says. “Anthony Bourdain had the greatest job that show biz has ever produced. This man flew around the world and ate delicious meals with outstanding people. That man, with that job, hung himself in a luxury suite in France.”

The critics were furious:

“Chappelle’s joke can move the conversation on mental health backward.”

“Chappelle MOCKED Bourdain’s suicide.”

“It’s not cutting edge. It’s not creative. It doesn’t push political or comedic boundaries. It’s stale, and it’s lazy.””

Really?

It sounds to me like he’s saying that if someone as successful as Bourdain can kill himself, then that means anyone can.

That means you have to really look for the clues in the people you love to see what might be going on on the inside and how we can help.

I’m pretty sure he’s not making fun of Bourdain for killing himself.

Again, he’s pointing out something that I even thought when the news came out that Bourdain had committed suicide. The question of “Why?”

Such an important question to ask so we can help others, or even ourselves.

Why can’t he point this out without people saying he’s insensitive?

—

There’s much more in the special that people were critical of.

Chappelle was basically challenging people (as he announced in his first joke he was going to do) to cancel him.

He planned to take it to the limit. He raised all the questions, opinions, and history that many people were thinking but were afraid to say. He was authentic to himself.

He didn’t actually say many of the things the critics said he said (e.g., Michael Jackson, suicide, “Ts”, etc.) if you actually dig down on the words he used in the special.

And the critics fell for it. They did exactly what Chappelle said they would do.

They fell for every trap.

I often tell people, “Don’t publish an article UNLESS you are afraid what people will think of you. Then you know it’s different and expands the discussion about the topics you care about. Else, it’s just one more bland article or book among millions.”

Chappelle went beyond that and dived into territory many other people, comedians, columnists, etc. are afraid to do.

This is just my opinion. And, of course, some disagreed (0% critics score) but most didn’t (99% audience score. )

And he made it funny. People laughed.

The most important rule of comedy, Dave Chappelle said to Will Smith, is that interesting is more important than funny.

He did both.

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Self-Help Dictators, Stillness, and Altucher’s Book Club!

Kim Il-sung killed millions of people while supreme leader of North Korea for 50 years.

“People only get free from oppression through struggle.”–Kim Il-sung.

Kim Il-sung was the self-help, failure-porn motivational speaker of his time.

Anyone who disagreed with him was “disappeared.”

—

In the mid ’00s, I was getting a divorce and my latest business venture went to nothing.

What’s it like to be a “nothing”:

I hated myself. I had so many regrets. Is this what it feels like to have your world end? I thought on the first Thanksgiving alone, without my kids, with no family.

Finally, I gave up. I couldn’t take it. I was in so much pain.

At night I would grab my head. Stop! Why are there so many thoughts?

I became addicted to anti-anxiety pills. They were the only thing that worked for me. They slowed me down.

I could think again. I could think about today.

The best predictor of a successful tomorrow is a successful today.

A successful today meant: I was around people I loved who loved me. I would say yes to things I loved and no to things I didn’t. I would be curious and learn each day. I would be grateful and provide value without being asked. I would be creative each day.

I started to make my kids laugh again.

—

Five years go I was speaking to the author featured in this week’s book club, Ryan Holiday.

I told him, “You should start a marketing agency. Work hard at it for two or four years, get acquired, work another two or three years to help the buyer of your company, and then you can do whatever you want.”

He listened. For about two weeks.

And then he moved to a farm in Austin, he got a goat, got married, had a kid, and started writing the books that made him famous.

“I didn’t want to deal with clients I hated,” he later told me, “and struggle for all those years. I just wanted to write books.”

—

Ryan and I once debated the question: Is there anybody worthy of envy?

Ryan asked me, “Picture someone you are envious of. Would you want to trade places with them? To take ALL of their life, not just the parts you are envious of?”

We both tried to think of someone. Nobody.

Conversations like this make it a pleasure to recommend his latest book in today’s book club.

What makes someone authentic, calm, happy? And does that lead to success?

One quote from the book: “To have an impulse and to resist it, to sit with it and examine it, to let it pass by—this is how we develop spiritual strength. This is how we become who we want to be in the world.”

He tells stories from his own life, from 100s of historical lives, and shares inspiration from every story he’s been inspired by.

Struggle didn’t shape me. Learning to be calm, after 20 years of stress, did.

Learning to breathe.

Don’t listen to the self-help gurus who get their inspiration from dictators.

List what makes you happy. Today. Do those things more.

You’ll get what you’ve always gotten if you go where you’ve always been going.

 

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