Wednesday, June 24, 2020

How to Bleed in the First Line

Because I grew up ugly, I was always insecure about first impressions. “Ugly” was my boot camp for bleeding as fast as possible.

Vulnerability buys freedom. Freedom to look how I want, to say what I want, to do what I want.

I like to study first lines. They have to be powerful: a few simple words that compel us to read the next 300 pages. How do the authors do it? How can I do it?

Here are 12 first lines from some of my favorite books and WHY they “bleed.”


“Mother died today. Or maybe yesterday; I can’t be sure.”

— Albert Camus, The Stranger

There’s death, confusion, apathy. The entire book is in that first line.

Why so unemotional over his mother’s death? Why is being unsure so critical as we enter into the narrator’s world?


“I am an invisible man.”

— Ralph Ellison, Invisible Man

Does he have super powers? Or is it a metaphor? How does being an invisible man justify his existence?

Plus the direct simplicity as if he gave up. Why did he surrender so easily? Did the world beat it out of him?


“I first met Dean not long after my wife and I split up. I had just gotten over a serious illness that I won’t bother to talk about, except it had something to do with the miserably weary split-up and my feeling that everything was dead.”

— Jack Kerouac, On the Road

He had an illness. A split with his wife. But these mean nothing compared to “I first met Dean.” They aren’t even worth talking about once he meets Dean.

Things are about to change.

Will he find meaning in Dean? Is Dean so important that it’s not even worth talking about the serious illness or the breakup?


“Many years later, as he faced the firing squad, Colonel Aureliano Buendía was to remember that distant afternoon when his father took him to discover ice.”

— Gabriel García Márquez, 100 Years of Solitude

He’s facing the firing squad. How did he get there? We’re in the middle of the story. “Many years later.” After what? This is the first line!

Somehow it started with the discovery of ice — symbolic of cold, of the mysterious. He was a boy then (innocent), nostalgic (“father”) and now he’s a colonel about to be killed!

The entire novel, once again, stuffed into that microcosm of a sentence.


“The snow in the mountains was melting and Bunny had been dead for several weeks before we understood the gravity of our situation.”

— Donna Tartt, The Secret History

Three things about this sentence:

“Snow melting” — idyllic.

And “melting” — slowness, seasons changing, light, even hope.

And yet, “Bunny had been dead” — horror — and not only dead but “for several weeks.” And why did it take several weeks to “understand the gravity”?

Cruelty, apathy in the idyllic.

I like when a first line suggests we are spying in the very middle of a story.

It’s the difference between the Mona Lisa, where the entire painting is contained within the frame, and something like Nighthawks by Edward Hopper, where you feel there are many stories outside the frame that brought everyone into the diner.

(Nighthawks by Edward Hopper)


“All this happened, more or less.”

— Kurt Vonnegut, Slaughterhouse-Five

“All this happened” — almost as if we will not believe it so the author insists it’s true. Is it so horrible as to be unbelievable?

And yet… “more or less.” Well, did it happen or not? Is the narrator unreliable or will there be a reason he doesn’t want to relay the story accurately? For some reason, the narrator warns us he might be unreliable.


“It began the usual way, in the bathroom of the Lassimo Hotel.”

— Jennifer Egan, A Visit from the Goon Squad

What is “it”? And what is “the usual way”?

And when I think “the usual way” I don’t think about bathrooms or hotels or, very specifically, the Lassimo Hotel.

There’s humor in the line because of the incongruity. The sentence sounds like a noir detective novel. We want to find out what “it” was, what is “usual,” why “the bathroom” and why the specificity of “Lassimo.” Four questions in one line plus the noir feeling.


“It began as a mistake.”

— Charles Bukowski, Post Office

Such a simple line. Five words. Again, what is “it” and why was it a “mistake”? Also, it highlights the narrator’s vulnerability. Should we trust him?

We MUST continue in order to uncover the questions.


“You are about to begin reading Italo Calvino’s new book, ‘If on a Winter’s Night a Traveler.’”

— Italo Calvino, If on a Winter’s Night a Traveler

He refers to himself and his book in the first line, breaking the fourth wall with the reader immediately.

Is the narrator Italo Calvino? There’s a paradox here: Did he write that line after writing the book or did he start the book that way.

It’s confusing but not so confusing you won’t read on in order to satisfy your curiosity.


“124 was spiteful.”

— Toni Morrison, Beloved

Why is someone named “124”? Is this even a person? Gives an unemotional feeling. And yet we also know in three words that “124” was “spiteful.”  Which implies action.

Why not angry? Why specifically is 124 filled with “spite”?

Spite implies some action, like 124 wants to hurt someone. Spite implies you want someone to feel the pain you feel. As opposed to just feeling angry. Conveyed in just three words.


“The sky above the port was the color of television, tuned to a dead channel.”

— William Gibson, Neuromancer

A bad novel might start, “The sky above the port was the deepest of blues.” Which is too obvious. Instead, “the color of television.”

What is the color of television? The color of a TV depends on the signal being sent. But the signal is “tuned to a dead channel” — why is it dead?

The static we see on an old TV is the signal from the Big Bang. Unfathomable and yet that is what the narrator sees.

Also, why a port? An entrance to another country. But in this case, an entrance into technology — a television. Life is going to change at this “port”al.


“Vaughn died yesterday, in his last car crash.”

— J.G. Ballard, Crash

A death just yesterday? Oddly unemotional. And “in his last car crash” implies there were other crashes before this. And the simplicity of the sentence feels like a lack of emotion.

Why the lack of emotion? Why the directness?

The reader is subconsciously caught off guard because more emotion and less directness is expected when someone dies. Imagine if someone you loved died yesterday — would you write the line like that?


SUMMARY

Elements of a great bleeding first line:

  • The first sentence often contains the seeds of the entire novel
  • The structure (simple vs. complex, confusing vs. direct) contains the emotions
  • Twisted. A mystery to unravel so you read further
  • Unique. Each of those lines are unique in all literature
  • Vulnerable. Again, vulnerability buys freedom.

A great author uses this freedom to invite us on a journey. And once we set out on that journey, we know we are in for a wild ride.

I hope studying this makes me a better writer.

The post How to Bleed in the First Line appeared first on James Altucher.



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Tuesday, June 23, 2020

12 Things I Learned From Eminem About Persuasion

I walked out of the TEDx conference 20 minutes before my talk and I was planning on just going to the airport and flying home. I’m a quitter. I was terrified. I did not want to give my talk. My plan was to go home and just never return any of the angry calls from the organizers.

I was supposed to be the last speaker of the day, everyone was tired, and the woman speaking before me was amazing. She was incredibly inspiring and showed how, despite having extreme pain and medical troubles since birth, she was able to rise up and break a very physically demanding world record.

I only saw the beginning of her talk but there were already tears everywhere. Then it would be my turn and then there was going to be a special performance from the local ballet and then there would be a party.

I didn’t want to give my talk. I couldn’t even breathe. I was going to talk about my book, “Choose Yourself,” and the principles I had learned when I was repeatedly going broke and always had to bounce back.

But I was insecure: I wasn’t as good as any of the other speakers, particularly the woman speaking before me. And I wasn’t as good as the ballet. And I wasn’t going to be as fun as the party afterwards. So what was the point of me? I felt like a fraud. Like I was useless. Like 2,000 people would look at me and they would all be thinking, “Oh my god, can he JUST SHUT UP already?”

I went back and gave my talk.


Whenever someone starts talking to me about cognitive biases, I always want to ask, “But how would I use this?” Cognitive biases are shortcuts the brain uses to make decisions when things are complicated. But can I secretly use them to my advantage?

Here’s an example…

Negativity bias: Given many possible interpretations of an event, assume the worst-case scenario and act accordingly.

For instance, if you pass a bush and the leaves rustle, it could be one of two things: 1) The wind passing through (harmless), or 2) A lion ready to pounce (dangerous!).

Negativity bias kicks in and you RUN. The humans that did not have this bias wired into their brains probably died and did not become one of our ancestors. They were eaten by lions.

There are many cognitive biases. But it’s one thing to know them. It’s another to use them. You can use them to persuade people, judge people, and you can use them in high-stakes negotiations. But only if you know how. Most books, articles, talks I’ve seen on cognitive biases give zero guidance on how to use them to help create the world I want to live in. I’m not an academic in a laboratory. I live or die on these cognitive biases and their use to me.

This is where Eminem comes in.

With 220 million albums sold, Eminem is the top-selling rapper of all time. Drake is a distant No. 2, coming in at 150 million albums sold.

Let’s look at the final scene from the movie “8 Mile,” an autobiographical movie Eminem made and starred in. You don’t need to know the movie. I will break down the scene line by line so you will know everything there is to know about influence and persuasion, cognitive bias, and defeating your competition.

First, here’s all you need to know about the movie.

Eminem is a poor, no-collar, white-trash guy living in a trailer park. He’s beaten on, works crappy jobs, gets betrayed, gets beaten up, etc. But he lives to rap and break out somehow.

In the first scene, he is having a “battle” against another rapper and he chokes. He gives up without saying a word. He’s known throughout the movie as someone who chokes under pressure and he seems doomed for failure.

Until he chooses himself.

The scene I will show you and then break down is the final battle in the movie. He’s the only white guy and the entire audience is black. He’s up against the reigning champion that the audience loves.

He wins the battle using cognitive biases and I will show you how. With his techniques you can go up against any competitor.

After he wins it, he can go on to do anything he wants. To win any battle. But he walks off because he’s going to do his own thing. He chooses himself. The movie ends with him walking off after his victory.

First off, watch the scene (with lyrics) before and after my explanation.

Here is the scene: 

Watch it right now.

 

OK, let’s break it down. How did Eminem win so easily?

Setting aside his talent for a moment (assume both sides are equally talented), Eminem used a series of cognitive biases to win the battle.

Here’s the thing: We no longer need all of these cognitive shortcuts to survive. There aren’t that many lions in the street. But the brain took 400,000 years to evolve and it’s only in the past 50 years, maybe, that we’ve become relatively safe from most of the dangers that threatened earlier humans. Our technology and ideas have evolved, but our brains can’t evolve fast enough to keep up with them.

Consequently, these biases are used in almost every sales campaign, business, marketing campaign, movie, news outlet, relationship, everything. Almost all of your interactions are dominated by biases and understanding them is helpful when calling BS on your thoughts.

Your brain is loving and wants to protect you. But it’s not smart enough because life has evolved faster than the brain. So you have to learn how to reach past the signals from the brain and develop intuition and mastery over these biases.

1) INGROUP BIAS

Notice Eminem’s first line: “Now everybody from the 313, put your motherf***ing hands up and follow me.”

The 313 is the area code for Detroit. And not just Detroit — it’s for blue-collar, black Detroit, which is where the entire audience, and Eminem, is from. So he wipes away the outgroup bias that might be associated with his race and he changes the conversation to, “Who is in 313 and who is NOT in 313?”

Now the entire audience is in his tribe. He has “ingrouped” them.

2) HERD BEHAVIOR

He said, “Put your hands up and follow me.” Everyone starts putting their hands up without thinking. The brain always assumes there’s a very good reason for everything it does.

So their brain tells them that they are doing this for rational reasons. The rational reason: They are obediently following Eminem.

Here’s one experiment behavioral scientists have done: If you are at a hotel and there’s a sign in your bathroom that says, “80% of our guests reuse towels to help the environment,” you are significantly more likely to reuse a towel because you want to follow the herd. Take away the sign and almost nobody reuses the towels.

3) AVAILABILITY CASCADE

The brain has a tendency to believe things even more if they are repeated, regardless of whether they are true. This is called “availability cascade.” There is a cascade of information that is available to you, and it’s all the same, so you feel the need to believe it. It must be true.

Notice Eminem repeats his first line. After he does that he no longer needs to say, “Follow me.” He says, “Look, look.” They are already following him and under his command. So he says “look” because he is about to point out the enemy. He is setting up the next cognitive bias.

4) DISTINCTION BIAS OR OUTGROUP BIAS

Brains have a tendency to view two things as very different if they are evaluated at the same time, as opposed to if they were evaluated separately. Eminem wants his opponent, Papa Doc, to be evaluated right then as someone different from the group, even though the reality is they are all in the same group of friends with similar interests, etc.

Eminem says, “Now while he stands tough, notice that this man did not have his hands up.”

In other words, even though Papa Doc is black, like everyone in the audience, he is no longer “in the group” that Eminem has defined and commanded: the 313 group. He has completely changed the conversation from race to area code.

5) AMBIGUITY BIAS

He doesn’t refer to Papa Doc by name. He says “this man.” In other words, there’s “the 313 group,” which we are all a part of in the audience, and now there is this ambiguous man who is attempting to invade us. People tend to prefer things where the brain thinks there is more certainty. In this rap battle, the reality is that the brain knows equal amounts about Papa Doc and the character Eminem is playing (named B-Rabbit). But when Eminem says “this man,” he leaves out information, creating a moment of ambiguity.

At that moment, without the crowd realizing it, ambiguity bias kicks in and they naturally begin to prefer Eminem.

Watch presidential campaign debates. A candidate will rarely refer to another candidate by name. Instead, he might say, “All of my opponents might think X, but we here know that Y is better.. The candidate is clustering everyone else into a group of “opponents,” and now there is — very subtly — less information about who the other candidates are. There is the one talking (certainty) and then there is this “other” group.

If you’re the last person to speak at a conference, you can use this technique. You can say, “I’m the last person speaking. Let’s give a round of applause for all the others who came up before me.” BAM! Ambiguity bias kicks in and for a microsecond, the audience can’t even remember who the other speakers were. You clustered them. Now they will remember you… and “the others.”

This was the technique that I used when I went back to the conference. Did it work? I don’t know. But I felt very good about my talk and the response to it afterwards.

You can also use this in sales. You go into a meeting and start off saying, “I know you’ve seen a lot of great presentations before me…” etc. Anytime you can cluster people into “you” vs. “the others,” you are using this bias.

6) CREDENTIAL BIAS

Because the brain wants to take shortcuts, it will look for information more from people with credentials or lineage than from people who come out of nowhere. So, for instance, if one person is from Harvard and told you it was going to rain today and another random person told you it was going to be sunny today, you might be more inclined to believe the person from Harvard. I hate to think that’s true, but it is.

Robert Cialdini, in his book “Influence,” calls this technique “authority.”

Eminem does this subtly two lines later. He says, “One, two, three, and to the four.” This is a direct line from Snoop Dogg’s first song with Dr. Dre, “Ain’t Nothin But a G Thing.” It is the first line in the song and perhaps one of the most well-known rap lines ever. Everyone in the audience has heard the line and knows exactly where it comes from.

By using it, Eminem directly associates himself with well-known successful rappers Dr. Dre and Snoop. (Trivia point: Eminem was actually discovered by Dr. Dre, who launched his career.)

He then uses availability cascade again by saying, “One Pac, two Pac, three Pac, four.” First, he’s using that one, two, three, and to the four again, but this time with Pac, which refers to the rapper Tupac. So now he’s associated himself in this little battle in Detroit with three of the greatest rappers ever.

7) INGROUP / OUTGROUP

Eminem points to random people in the audience and says “You’re Pac, he’s Pac,” including them with him by associating their lineages with these great rappers. But then he points to his opponent, Papa Doc, makes a gesture like his head is being sliced off and says, “You’re Pac, NONE.” Meaning that Papa Doc has no lineage, no credibility, unlike Eminem and the audience.

8) BASIC DIRECT MARKETING: LIST THE OBJECTIONS UP FRONT

Any direct marketer or salesperson knows the next technique Eminem uses.

When you are selling a product, or yourself, the person or group you are selling to is going to have easy objections. They know those objections and you know those objections. If you don’t bring them up and they don’t bring them up then they will not buy your product. If they bring it up before you, then it looks like you are hiding something and you just wasted a little of their time by forcing them to bring it up.

So a great sales technique is to address all of the objections in advance.

Eminem’s next set of lines does this brilliantly.

He says, “I know everything he’s got to say against me.”

And then he just lists them one by one:

  • “I am white.”
  • “I am a f***ing bum.”
  • “I do live in a trailer with my mom.”
  • “My boy, Future, is an Uncle Tom.”
  • “I do have a dumb friend named Cheddar Bob who shot himself with his own gun.”
  • “I did get jumped by all six of you chumps.”

And so on. He lists several more. But at the end of the list, there’s no more criticism you can make of him. He’s addressed everything and dismissed them. In a rap battle (or a sales pitch), if you address everything your opponent can say, he’s left with nothing to say. When he has nothing to say, the audience, or the sales prospect, will buy from you.

Look at direct marketing letters you get in email. They all spend pages and pages addressing your concerns. This is one of the most important techniques in direct marketing.

9) HUMOR BIAS

Eminem saves his best for last. “But I know something about you,” he says while staring at Papa Doc. He sings it playfully, making it stand out and almost humorous. There is something called humor bias. People remember things (and like things) that are stated humorously more than they remember serious things.

10) EXTREME OUTGROUP

“You went to Cranbrook.” And then Eminem turns to his 313 group for emphasis as he explains what Cranbrook is. “That’s a private school.” BAM! There’s no way now the audience can be on Papa Doc’s side but Eminem makes the outgroup even larger. “His real name’s Clarence. And his parents have a real good marriage.”

BAM and BAM! Two more things that separate Papa Doc out from the crowd. He’s a nerdy guy, who goes to a rich school, and his parents are together. Unlike probably everyone in the audience, including Eminem. No wonder Papa Doc doesn’t live in the 313, which was originally stated somewhat humorously but is now proven without a doubt.

11) CREDENTIAL BIAS (again) & SUNK COST FALLACY

Eminmen says, “There ain’t no such thing as”… and the audience chants with him because they know exactly what he is quoting a song by Mobb Deep, another huge East Coast rap group (so now Eminem has established lineage between himself and both the West Coast and the East Coast). And by using the audience to finish the line with, “Halfway crooks!” we’re all in the same group again while “Clarence” goes back to his home with his parents at the end of the show.

Also, when the audience finishes his line, they are susceptible to SUNK COST FALLACY. They are taking commands from Eminem at that point. The brain, to try to rationalize why it’s so easily spent that energy on Eminem (the sunken cost), rationalizes by saying, “It must be because we like Eminem.”

Benjamin Franklin used this technique to win over a political enemy. They were both in the Pennsylvania State Legislature and this enemy of Franklin’s was blocking all of the laws Franklin wanted to pass.

So Benjamin Franklin asked his rival if he could borrow a book from his rival’s collection. The rival was surprised but lent Franklin the book. A week later, Ben Franklin returned the book. The rival’s brain now thinks, “Oh! I am the sort of person who lends Ben Franklin books (the sunken cost) so I guess I like him.”

This rival never caused Benjamin Franklin a problem ever again.

(Pop art $100 bill by Steve Kaufman)

12) SCARCITY

The music stops, which means Eminem has to stop and let Papa Doc have his turn. But he doesn’t. He basically says, “F*** everybody, f*** y’all if you doubt me. I don’t wanna win. I’m outtie.”

He makes himself scarce. After establishing total credibility with the audience he basically says he doesn’t want what they have to offer. He reduces the supply of himself by saying he’s out of there. Maybe he will never come back. Reduce the supply of yourself while demand is going up and what happens? Basic economics. Value goes up.

He so thoroughly dominated the battle that now, in reversal to the beginning of the movie, Papa Doc chokes. He doesn’t quite choke, though. There’s nothing left to say. Eminem has said it all for him. There’s no way Papa Doc can raise any “objections” because Eminem has already addressed them all. All he can do is defend himself, which will give him the appearance of being weak. And he’s so thoroughly not in the 313 group that there is no way to get back in there. He can’t rebuild his tribe with the audience.

There’s simply nothing left to say. Eminem wins the battle.

And what does Eminem do with his victory? He can do anything.

Doesn’t it seem silly to analyze a rap song for ideas on how to be better at persuasion and influence? I don’t know. You tell me.

The post 12 Things I Learned From Eminem About Persuasion appeared first on James Altucher.



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Monday, June 15, 2020

Is College Still Worth It? (Wherein Hasan Minaj Calls Me Out)

Hasan Minaj called me an a**hole on “Patriot Act” last night. Here’s the video. Start around 4:00 to see ME. But the entire show is worth watching. I’m a big fan of the show and I like the simple format.

This episode was about whether college is worth it. I think by the end of the show, he agrees with me.

College is, of course, not worth it. It wasn’t worth it when I first wrote about this in 2005 in my column in The Financial Times. And every year since, but particularly now, it’s become even more worthless.

A) Tuition has gone up higher than inflation EVERY YEAR since 1977.

B) In 2000, graduates had $100 billion in student loan debt. Now: $1.6 TRILLION in student loan debt.

It used to be kids would graduate college and then have opportunities to become innovators, inventors, etc. The U.S. always gets its innovations from the young and hungry. Now, this generation is doomed to working shit jobs and making TikTok videos.

C) Georgetown University once called me out in a study about salaries for grads vs. non-grads. They quoted my articles on this and said I was wrong.

First, Georgetown “University” is a bit biased on this issue.

Secondly, their data was based on people who went to college 30–40 years ago. It was a different world then.

Third, companies ranging from Google to Ernst & Young no longer look at degrees in the hiring process.

Lastly, their study was scientifically flawed. No control group. The only real way to do this study is to take people who were accepted to all the same colleges as the group that was analyzed… BUT decided not to go to college. Otherwise, there’s no control for demographics.

Lesson: if you are biased when doing a scientific study, make sure you follow the rules of the Statistics 101 textbook that you teach at your school.

D) Why are colleges raising tuition? To pay for the increased costs of administration.

For instance, the president of Quinnipiac College (where?) makes $3 million. That’s a pretty hefty salary.

When Harvard took $9 million in CARES stimulus money a few months ago to keep paying salaries, who were they paying? Harvard’s endowment has $41 BILLION. Why did they need to take $9 million? Well, the head of Harvard’s endowment makes… $9 million. So I guess they were keeping employees paid after all.

E) Student loan debt is the one debt (including credit card debt, mortgage debt, IRS debt, etc.) that doesn’t go away in a bankruptcy.

So, in other words: Let’s loan to the youngest, riskiest group we possibly can… up to a quarter of a $1 million — even though they have zero collateral… and THEN let’s seize all their wages if they can’t pay it back.

F) Quick quiz (don’t Google) for college majors:

  • When was Charlemagne born (the man who first united Europe)?
  • Who was the president before Lincoln?
  • If the vice president dies, followed by the next person in line for the presidency, and then the next person… who becomes president?
  • What’s the symbol for copper on the Periodic Table?

I ask these not to show that people are stupid. I couldn’t answer two of them AS I WAS WRITING THEM.

The point is: We learn these throughout high school and college. And in 100% of the talks I give, when I ask the first question, nobody ever gets within 200 years of the right answer.

People only learn when they love a subject. I didn’t start learning any of the skills for the careers I succeeded in (or failed in) until AFTER college.

Even lawyers learn on the job. They are taught for the bar exam, but they learn the skills needed while on the job. I know this because I occasionally give talks at law firms about the latest nuances in law (I’m not a lawyer).

G) Kids say, “In college you learn to socialize.”

Harvey Mudd College (where?) is $75,000 a year. It doesn’t take $75,000 a year to teach an 18-year-old how to make friends or (realistically) have a ton of sex.

Also, college was the last time in my life I was friends with people my own age. Now, maybe 5% of people I know are the same age as me.

H) If you want to succeed at acting, act. If you want to be a computer programmer, program. Etc.

Do not spend four years wasting time learning theory when you can be doing. They are not the same.

I) College is one of the biggest causes of income inequality.

Only the top 1% can afford college. But even if you borrow the whole thing, there are enough extra costs, plus the debt burden, so that only the top 1/3 of society can go to college.

Andrew Yang addressed this on the Joe Rogan podcast.

Plus, college kids tend to marry college kids… non-college kids marry non-college kids… and the income inequality gets wider across generations.

Income inequality is not about how one person gets paid more than another. It’s about how entire generations create richer/poorer versions of the haves/have-nots

J) Pandemic:

Colleges sent everyone home last March and did not refund money or even dorm rent money (except in one or two cases where they were sued and decided not to fight it).

The problem is: People go to colleges that are “accredited” under the assumption this will help them get a job good enough to pay down their debt.

Solution: Accredit the good online schools like (not a full list): Coursera, Masterclass, LinkedIn Learning, LessonFace, Udemy, Teachable, Udacity, Khan Academy, Code Academy, etc.

“Nano-degrees” can be earned in a fraction of the time and at a fraction of the cost and actually give you MORE real-world skills.

As a side note, Scott Young, author of “Ultralearning” and a guest on my podcast, once completed MIT’s four-year computer science degree in less than a year using their online courses.

He completed every assignment, took the tests, etc.

Someone on Reddit said, “But he didn’t get the degree.” And an employer, correctly, responded, “I’d hire him over someone who took the degree because of his initiative.”

The pandemic has even further underlined the reasons not to go to college. If your choice is to learn online for $75,000 a year or online for $2,000 a year from better teachers, then the choice is now obvious.

Take online courses and learn skills. And if you have skills, CREATE an online course. It’s a very lucrative business to be in.

Finally, there are many important real-world skills that are simply not taught in college. Most investing courses are too theoretical and are useless in real life.

Many computer science courses are not useful. I majored in computer science. It was the only subject I got good grades in, but once I was working in the “real world,” I was so ill-prepared I had to take two months of remedial classes in order to be the worst person at my job.

People say, “This is easy for you to say — you went to college.”

  1. See above. It’s unclear what I learned. And then I had to pay down my debt plus interest.
  2. I skipped a year and graduated in three years to lessen my debt load. I paid for every dollar of tuition.
  3. If I’d had a three-year head start, it’s hard to predict, but at least I would’ve been debt-free and probably learned the skills I needed more quickly.
  4. Tuitions are 3x higher now, or more.
  5. Nothing I do now has anything to do with what I learned in college. There was no “world wide web” then, for instance.

I have five kids. One is about to graduate but he went to school in another country where it was much cheaper and it took three years.

One is not going. One dropped out (better to actually ACT than study acting. She takes classes on the side that are better and 1/50 the price). One is taking a gap year and one MIGHT start next year but we’ll see with these lockdowns (I am against her going).

Final story: I got an email in 2011 from a student at [prestigious Ivy League school] saying he would put me in a wheat thresher and saying some other things.

I reported him to campus police since colleges are CHAZ-style autonomous regions and have their own police force.

The head of security at the school said, “Oh yeah, we know about this guy. He threatened a librarian. But listen, he’s about to graduate. Do you really want to report him?”

Ummm, yes!

I never heard from them again.

I looked the student up recently and I think he works now at PBS.

Good luck everyone!

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Tuesday, June 9, 2020

The Great Hypocrisy of 2020

OK, I surrender.

This a simulation we’ve been put into where the gamemaker is saying, “Let’s see how INSANE we can make the world seem before they CRACK!”

And some multidimensional gods are placing bets on who will crack first or what event will make the most people implode in a combination of loathing and self-loathing at the same time.

Making a list of the hypocrisy but here are a few:

A) This is the setting:

Alex Berenson, who has been tweeting about the coronavirus, put together a book of his tweets. 

Whether he’s been right or wrong is not the point. He’s a respected writer (he’s been on my podcast about his thriller series and he’s a former NYT writer).

Hypocrisy: Amazon refused to let him self-publish his book, saying it wasn’t up to their standards. I’ve self-published 10 out of my 22 books.

I’ve never seen Amazon reject a self-published book.

Elon Musk complained on Alex’s behalf and Amazon published this book. It’s now No. 4 in the Amazon store.

Meanwhile, the classic self-published text, “How to Drink Your Own Urine” by Craig Smith, has been safely raking in sales for seven years.

B) The obvious example of the Great Hypocrisy of 2020:

Healthcare officials said people would die without social distancing.

A month ago, I posted a video of people biking in Central Park.

All of the comments were, “NYC deserves to die. No social distancing!” or “People in NYC care more about the stock market than whether or not their grandma dies!”

Hypocrisy: 1,200 healthcare officials have said the protests in NYC are more important than social distancing and the lockdown. About 50,000 people protested that day, all crowded into Foley Square.

I went to a protest the other day. It was insightful to learn and talk and listen to people.

Everyone was shoulder to shoulder and about 25% were not wearing masks. The protests have been going on now for more than 10 days so we should be seeing new hospitalizations.

Instead… zero.

C) “Freedom of speech is IN THE CONSTITUTION!” vs. “SHUT DOWN ALL BUSINESS and cause 40 million layoffs but no due process as required by the Constitution.”

D) Alt-left liberals: “Defund the police” vs. anarchist Libertarians: “Defund the police!”

E) “Wait two weeks,” was the rallying cry when Georgia opened.

We were supposed to see new deaths surge. It’s been about eight weeks now.

The peak was April 20 with 85 new deaths. Yesterday was 20 new deaths. People are still saying, “Wait two weeks!”

F) Tweets being banned if they mention hydroxychloroquine.

All three of my stepkids took HCQ every single day when they lived in Africa for three years.

Meanwhile, my kids showed me a tweet of the snuff video of a St. Louis retired cop being shot and killed by looters.

It’s a six-minute video. The cop is still alive in the video but is bleeding everywhere and his mouth is moving while he’s on the ground, minutes from death. He’s trying to look at the camera while mouthing something.

The guy making the video is screaming, “We just wanted some TVs!” This tweet is not banned.

When I was a kid, there was a VHS video being passed around called “Faces of Death.” Videos of people dying. It was hard to find this video. I never actually watched it. It was considered too horrible to watch — it would change you if you watched it.

Now all social media has become a snuff video channel. Deaths all day long for kids any age to watch.

G) The World Health Organization: “Don’t wear masks.”

The WHO: “You must wear masks!”

The WHO: “Masks don’t really help.”

Social media: “We will ban anything disagreeing with the WHO.”


I could go on. I have a list of 20 examples of hypocrisy at least. I’m collecting.

The true test of being a human now is not to be angry at this hypocrisy. And not to cry over a world where everyone has revealed who they are.

The test, as corny as it sounds, is to love rather than hate. To forgive rather than be angry. To laugh rather than cry. To observe and listen rather than act without thought. To live rather than to pause.

To continue to focus on:

  • Physical health (eat, move, sleep)
  • Emotional health (remove toxic people from your life, your thoughts)
  • Creative health (write down 10 ideas a day to build up the creativity muscle so you are a “super idea machine” for the times that are coming)
  • Spiritual health (let go and surrender to the things you can’t control and only focus on what you can control).

A Choose Yourself “warrior” does the above. This makes you ready for the world to come. The rest are civilians. Sheep.

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Monday, June 8, 2020

Economy, Protests, Virus… Everything You Need to Know About the New Abnormal

These are tender times. The system we live in is being questioned. As any system always should be.

This newsletter issue takes a look at exactly where we are right now on the virus, lockdowns, stimulus, protests, and opportunities. Based on hundreds of conversations with healthcare officials and experts, economists, government members, investors, and entrepreneurs, I want to summarize as concisely as possible some thoughts on the New Abnormal.

Questions are welcome and I will answer. Also, suggestions for future newsletters. This newsletter comes out every Monday. Subscribe because I will always be as topical as possible.

A) There will NOT be another lockdown. We know too much now about the fallacy of mathematical models. We know too much about which healthcare methods work and which don’t. We are also starting to know the effects of lockdown on mortality….

B) The mortality rate of homeless people is 9x the mortality rate of non-homeless. No leader will risk 40 million jobs lost again. The collateral fatalities are too great among the impoverished and those needing other non-virus treatment. Plus, mental illness effects. It’s this statistic that will help govern future decisions about lockdowns. The collateral fatalities are too great.

C) There is $2.2 trillion in stimulus and only about 20% has affected the economy, with 80% to go.

D) There will likely be a second stimulus. Plus the Federal Reserve is using trillions to buffer different parts of the economy.  

To put in perspective, the economy is about $15 trillion a year. So trillions in stimulus will radically change/grow the economy.

If the pandemic cost the economy about $2–3 trillion in immediate spending, then $4–5 trillion in stimulus or Federal Reserve actions could account for about a 30% increase in GDP off of the lows. Compare that with an annual rise of about 2% normally. This means the economy will come back V-shaped. There will be opportunities but a lot of them are unknown (as they should be) at the moment.

Change will happen in ways we can’t predict but this is the OPPOSITE of what happened in the 1930s with the Great Depression.

During the Great Depression, the government used “reverse stimulus” (e.g., RAISING interest rates) because they thought speculation was to blame. NOW, they are increasing speculation, which encourages innovation, creates prosperity, and increases employment.

Many people are worried that this “printing of money” will lead to hyperinflation. This will not be the case:

1) Currently we are in a massive deflationary environment. Inflation is often caused by high employment. This is NOT an issue now. We’ve gone from 3% unemployment to 13% in a few short months. We are a long way from full employment, and even when we were at full employment, there were no issues of inflation for reasons I describe below.

2) Inflation is often caused by too much supply of currency — which is an issue — BUT… there is so much demand for U.S. currency around the world (what other currency can replace the dollar?) that this still creates deflationary pressure. It’s nearly impossible to have hyperinflation when our debt is in the same currency we raise taxes in. See examples: Zimbabwe, Germany in the 1920s, Asian Default Crisis, South America in the 1980s…


VIRUS

Life is not going back to normal.

  • We will be constantly on alert for second waves, second seasons, new viruses.
  • A vaccine will take longer than we think. We’ve been working on a vaccine for another coronavirus, the common cold, for 50 years, and there is none. There are too many unknowns to expect a vaccine for COVID-19. Instead, expect medicines for symptoms but not vaccines.
  • The next wave of the virus will not have as many fatalities. We know more about ventilators, we know more about contagion rates, possible cures, we know more about who is susceptible. Expect 1/10 the fatalities or even less.
  • Testing and tracing is possible but brings up civil rights issues that could negatively impact society. If you google “Jobs + Trace Force,” you see positions for Lead Investigators, whose job is to ensure your safe isolation in case you were near someone who has the virus. This is clearly not going to be allowable for the majority of Americans. This is a version of the movie “Minority Report” by Tom Cruise. I’m not expressing an opinion here on whether this is a good or bad thing. Just that it’s not realistic in the U.S.
  • Expect the media to scare people about second waves, deaths, etc. This is what the media does and they won’t change. The media has been built up into this quasi-fourth branch of government over the past 200 years. But now the mainstream media is too hungry for page views and does not present a fair check or balance on our system of government. I’m not sure what does. People need to find sources of data they rely on and not just sources that confirm one’s bias.

On coronavirus modeling and data, I have been resorting to:

  • USC professor Gerard Tellis. Here’s a recent paper modeling the coronavirus that turned out to be the only one that was accurate.
  • Worldometers.info for actual case data.
  • Using my podcast to reach out to: epidemiologists, virologists, healthcare officials, Federal Reserve officials, economists, etc. to find out the real truth. I will always gather that data and present here in this newsletter.

Ignore media articles that say “new cases at all-time highs.” Cases will always go up. The more testing, the more cases. There are still millions of undiscovered cases.

The data that is relevant: new hospitalizations (which is a lagging indicator of infections by 10 days)… And daily new deaths, which has several problems:

  • It’s s a lagging indicator by 15 days.
  • “Deaths” seem to be different state by state.
  • Some deaths are the fault of treatment.

PROTESTS AND REFORM

Why protests WILL occur again:

  1. When trials happen in MN, if one of the officers is acquitted, there will be more protests, more questioning of police credibility, more Antifa and other groups getting involved in the message so important to young people.
  2. More police brutality videos will surface in the coming months and we are not prepared as a society to answer the questions these videos pose.
  3. If the coronavirus comes back, are police departments ready to handle an increase in crime in a non-lethal way?
  4. The protests are a collage of groups: peaceful protestors, angry protestors, other groups trying to infiltrate for their own agendas. There is no real leadership and there are questions but no agreement on solutions.

Compare current protests (or earlier “Occupy Wall Street”) to the 1960s with MLK and Malcolm X… the 1980s with Solidarity in Poland and Lech Walesa… Nelson Mandela with South Africa… Gandhi with India…even 1992 with Rodney King, etc.

As an amazing guide for what leadership in the midst of protests look like, please look at Martin Luther King’s early speech in Montgomery

(From the speech.)

Clearly reform is needed. But to get proper reforms you need leadership that knows how to negotiate the nuances of those reforms. It would be horrible after all of this despair and anger that as a society we go adrift and don’t get the reforms that are needed.

A) CRIMINAL JUSTICE REFORM   

  • Legalization of many non-violent crimes, drug-related crimes, sex worker crimes, etc.    
  • Release of prisoners convicted of non-violent crimes.

B) JOBS / LICENSING REFORM  

  • Why does CA require licenses for over 177 occupations? (The average among U.S. states is 92 occupations.) This is a regressive tax on the poorer third of society.
  • State licensing slows job growth by up to 20% per year.

C) BANKING REFORM

Over 10 million adults are “unbanked.” Meaning they don’t have bank accounts so they resort to pawn shops and payday lenders.

Allow companies like Square and Venmo to provide basic banking services like checking accounts and saving accounts.

The quickest way to get rid of unfair treatment of any group is to have economic and banking reform. But related to that is education reform and criminal justice reform.

D) LAW ENFORCEMENT REFORM

  • Revise vetting procedures for officers.
  • Strict penalties and reduced qualified immunity laws.  
  • Review operating procedures to create more emphasis on usage of non-lethal or non-violent devices.

E) EDUCATION

  • Give accreditation for full degrees to online schools, reducing the time and money it takes to get a STEM degree.
  • Reward apprenticeship (with credits towards degrees).
  • No more government backing of student loans.

F) VOTER REFORM

Make voting standards federal and not state by state.


ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND OPPORTUNITY

Remember these four words:

ACCELERATION: If something was going to happen in 10 years, it will now happen in one or two years.

If you thought automation was going to replace workers in 10 years, it’s going to happen much faster.

If JC Penney was going to go bankrupt in 10 years, it will happen tomorrow.

If you were going to get divorced in five years, start calling lawyers tomorrow.

REMOTE: Automation, telemedicine, telelearning, drones, robotics, Big Data, AI.

LOCAL: Voter turnout will go up for local elections, services for local businesses will be in need (for instance, make and sell stickers to be placed on the ground for lines to retail stores to help people line up six feet apart).

SAFETY: Law enforcement, operating procedures for health safety.

ANY stimulus now needs to go direct to consumers and not be used to bail out industries that will die anyway.   

The fastest way money gets into the economy is if you directly hand a check to a consumer. The way you can measure the political mismanagement of any future stimulus bill is what percentage of the bill is to industries and not consumers.

This is not meant to be anti-business. It’s just reality: If you want to increase spending NOW, give it to the people who spend now.

Businesses use the money to pay down debt, or put in the bank, but not to directly spend.

Some side hustles that can turn into businesses (each Monday newsletter will include ideas like this):

  • Create an online course at Teachable.com.
  • Create an online newsletter (paid or free) at substack.com.
  • Create an online store (Use Shopify).
  • Learn copywriting. Copywriting is different than writing. Copywriting is a long ad that is designed in this attention-glutted age to get you to buy a product.

Mini-course on Copywriting

Copywriting makes use of cognitive biases to sell products. Some basics that you will recognize from emails you get all day long:

The “long letter”: The conversion rate on a half hour letter is higher than the conversion rate on a letter that just takes one minute to read. How come? Because your brain doesn’t like to think it’s stupid. Your brain will say to you: “Hey, I just read this letter for a half hour so it MUST be important. I better buy this product in order to justify all the time I wasted reading this letter.”

I write the above sort of cynically but if you have a message and product that you believe in then you will use this technique.

The six “U”s: Sometimes this is called “The four ‘U’s,” but there are two more that you must include in any copy-written letter.

  • UNIQUE: What does your product have that no other product has ever had or ever will have?
  • URGENCY: An example is, “Buy while supplies last!”
  • USEFULNESS: “Lose 40 pounds on the ‘What Would Jesus Eat?’ diet.”
  • ULTRA-SPECIFIC: “This skin-tightening formula uses sea moss discovered off the coast of St. James Kiln, Ireland that was irradiated during the last polar shift and has special features that reduce the cell distance to the level of nanometers on your cheekbones.”
  • UNQUESTIONABLE SOCIAL PROOF: “Janet Sacks from NYC used this formula to generate in 127% per year buying tax liens and flipping homes.”
  • USER FRIENDLY: “Just apply the cream in three seconds.”

And I will add one more:

  • AUTHORITY: “Dr. Jonas Salk injected this into his own body and cured himself.”

Learning copywriting can allow you to create and sell your own products or help others sell their products and then you can scale.

Example: Write copy for a local dentist to up his number of customers. If it works, you could scale by selling “Dentist in a Box” services to 10,000 other dentists.

I call this IDEA MULTIPLICATION.


ONLINE STORES WILL REPLACE BRICKS AND MORTAR

This is already obvious but just repeating it.

VIRTUAL ASSISTANT

Use Zirtual to find opportunities.

I am not recommending being a virtual assistant forever.

Here’s how I would attack it:

Become a virtual assistant for a few high-net-worth executives.

  • Assist with travel.
  • Assist with scheduling and reminders, etc.
  • Assist with social media.

Then, remember this mantra: “Your best new customers are your old customers”.

If you help an executive update their LinkedIn page, then also suggest: “Hey, you should have a presence on Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, Twitter, etc. I can help you with all of those.”

Hire people to help you do constant updates for all of your clients. Get more clients.

Now your time as a virtual assistant has turned into a social media agency you can build and ultimately sell for millions.

CLOUD KITCHENS vs. RESTAURANTS

When you think of the word “restaurant,” you usually think of a location with good food, tables, waiters, hosts, bartenders, busboys, cleaning people, etc.

That period of our lives is now over.

A restaurant is a menu. If I were starting a restaurant today I would google “Local commissary kitchens” (i.e., a legal kitchen that can serve food for charged delivery).

I would create more than one menu. James’s SushiRitos, GenZ Pizza, etc.

Rent space in a commissary (or cloud) kitchen. Create multiple menus. Upload them to DoorDash, UberEats, and GrubHub. See which menus get the most orders. Double down on those menus and shut down the other “restaurants” that you started.

In a recent podcast with Sam Parr, we were brainstorming what sorts of specialty restaurants might work:

  • Combine two ethnic foods (SushiRitos).
  • Take one side dish and make a menu out of it. In NYC, there is a restaurant that sells all sorts of different rice pudding dishes.
  • Take one dessert and make it unusual sizes: James’ Big Cones.
  • More ideas welcome in the comments.

CONTENT CREATION

With everyone working remotely, more emphasis on content creation will be rewarded.

Here is how I view monetization of content creation:

SPOKE & WHEEL: The wheel is the core values and content you want to create. For instance, “investing” or “fantasy sports” or “dieting” or “dating.” Whatever you feel strongly passionate about and want to create content around.

How do you find a passion? I don’t mean this in a life-changing sense, since one will have many passions. But how do you find something that makes you happy right now that you would love to create content around?

  • Scroll down your Instagram. What do you take photos of? Ditto for your search history.
  • What did you love to do at age 12 that has “aged” well? For instance, Matt Berry was a Hollywood screenwriter and very unhappy. So he quit this career, which made a good amount of money, and returned to his childhood love: sports. He wasn’t an athlete, so he focused on fantasy sports. Most fantasy sports sites were written by dry, numbers-based enthusiasts. He combined his skills as a professional comedy writer with his interest in sports and for $100 a blog post, built up a huge audience for his fantasy sports writing. Now he is the ESPN anchor for fantasy sports.
  • Advice Tim Ferris gave me: If money or “likes” were not the goal, how would you structure your day? I ask myself this question often and act on the results.

Again, Your WHEEL is the core of what you want to create content around. The SPOKES are the ways you monetize it: podcast, book, blog, course, newsletter, speaking, consulting, Patreon, social media, affiliate deals, etc.

If there is interest (please email and tell me), I will write newsletters about how to monetize and maximize each of these spokes.


SUMMARY

  • The virus is not solved. But we understand it better.
  • The economy is not solved. But it will bounce back fast and there will be opportunity.
  • Protests will happen, but reforms also.
  • SUCCESS will belong to those who can live in the land of “not knowing.” Inquiry > certainty.

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Thursday, June 4, 2020

What They’re Not Telling You About the Protests with Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams

Eric Adams is the Brooklyn Borough president.

He’s also running for mayor.

You probably remember the last time he came on my podcast (check out the episode here). He talked about why he became a police officer… and how being physically beaten by the police inspired him to make change.

Now, he’s back on to explain the streams of the protests.

Who’s out there in peaceful protest? Who’s disrupting it? Why are professional anarchists robbing people of their chance to speak about injustice? And how do we move forward?

Listen to the full episode by clicking the image below.

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Monday, June 1, 2020

Disasters Will Always Be Trending: Ask These 3 Questions

It was exactly midnight, so (as Mercedes told me to do) I smashed the coconut in the middle of the West Side Highway.

Things are going to get better, I thought, when I saw the coconut all over the highway. It was March 2002. My second baby was born the night before.

On 9/11, I lived two blocks from the World Trade Center. During the Financial Crisis, I lived on Wall Street. I’m a bit tired of always living at “Ground Zero.”

For 15 years, I thought my self-worth was my net-worth. And everyone else had an agenda for me. I had been living my life upside down.

I listened to other people’s agendas for me. I never asked: “Who am I? Why am I? Why now?” because for a long time I couldn’t figure out the answers.


The above image shows the number of Google searches over the past year: Impeachment, Iran, unemployment, COVID, Floyd.

Iran was a blip. One day it was World War III. My kids asked, “Are we getting drafted?” My answer: “I hope so!”

But the next day… where did Iran go?

The impeachment hearings were a reality show with a bunch of old men. Very boring. Will there be another season?.

9/11. Financial crisis. It always seemed like the end of the world to me. My favorite drug became Klonopin for anxiety. I wanted to predict my future but couldn’t. I wanted to believe the psychic.

Things are uncertain now and humans hate that. We want answers!

But inquiry is more important than certainty. Ask questions. Who are you? Why are you? Why now?


When I was hitting bottom, a friend of mine — a venture capitalist — told me he owed all his success to a psychic. He gave me her address.

I went out to West New York by bus. I wandered around for hours until finding the psychic’s storefront. I saw people listening to music out of a beat-up car, playing dominos on the street in the middle of the day. Like a music video.

I wanted to move there, disappear, play dominos in the street with my new friends, never go back to my life again.

The psychic told me to throw a coconut in the middle of the West Side Highway at midnight.

I did. I smashed it.

A few months later I was worse off than I was. I never slept. I cried every day.

Asking, “Who am I? Why am I? And why now?” eventually helped me. But it was years before I started asking those questions.

Why now?

Because people need to know things are going to get better. Because we survived this. Because fear is OK but now is the time to help others know that.

Because to be happier, you need to help others be happy. To be successful, help others find success. To find answers, help people ask questions.

I wish nothing bad ever happened to me. But maybe nothing bad ever has.

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