The 3 D’s of Investing

Not too long ago, Britain decided it had had enough and filed for divorce from the European Union.

Like many divorces, it was messy and bitter. And it’ll still be years before they reach a final settlement.

People took sides and everyone got upset.

“What about the children?” they cried.

Which, in this case, meant, “What about the economy?”

Everyone thought a financial disaster was imminent. Experts announced on TV and in articles that the markets would crash and take years to recover. That it would lead to a global economic meltdown.

And guess what?

None of that happened. It meant nothing.

I didn’t even watch the news or read the articles about the Brexit. It was all just noise.

I said the same thing right after the Brexit happened. I said it would have no long-term impact on the U.S. or the global markets, no matter what the fear-mongering media was predicting. In fact, I said it would probably turn into a great buying opportunity for investors smart enough to see it.

People got mad at me. Like, REALLY mad. I was being insensitive and a typical American.

But it turns out I was right. At first, the stock market tanked, and kept falling.

Then three weeks later, the stock market was not only back up, but trading at an ALL-TIME high!

BAM!

Think of the profits those investors made.

This brings me to one of the best pieces investing strategies I’ve ever found. (By the way I don’t believe in giving advice. I just believe in what works. In my years of investing, I’ve probably tried every strategy there is. And this is one of the only ones I’ve found that works for me. You can take it or leave it.)

Here it is:

Look for the three D’s:

• Death
• Divorce
• Debt

Why?

Because supply and demand is crap. It doesn’t mean anything.

Price is determined by situations.

Let’s look at this on a smaller scale:

A business is almost always going to be undervalued when the owners are dealing with death, divorce, or debt. Add disease in there, too, for good measure.

For instance, if the founder of a business dies and the children are off doing other things, often they will be willing to sell it cheap rather than watch it run into the ground. Or when two married people get divorced, they often have to sell their business at any cost in order to divide up the assets and end their marriage. If a company is in debt, then you may be able to invest in that company super cheap.

(Those are literal examples of how the theory works on a smaller scale, but as I explained with Brexit, it’s true on a larger scale, too. The Brexit really was just a large-scale nasty divorce between Britain and the EU.)

All of those lead to a company being undervalued, even if nothing has fundamentally changed within the business.

Which leads to the most important D: discount.

Very rarely do you want to invest in anything that is at the top of its game. When you do, that usually means you are paying the most expensive price. It also means that in that moment, everything is going right for that particular asset.

And when everything is going right, it means there is a lot of room for things to go wrong.

When something is already trading at a premium, there are really only two things it can do from there: it can coast, or it can fall.

Neither is good for investors. When you invest in something, you want to be able to make more money than you spent on it.

Instead of looking at what’s already doing well, look for the opposite. Look at what’s being undervalued in the market, not through any loss in its intrinsic value, but due to situations of uncertainty.

Remember, supply and demand don’t determine price. Situations determine price. And uncertain situations are where you can uncover the best value.

You want to invest when there is blood in the streets.

That’s when there is the most room for growth, and for profit.

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Ep. 187 – Chris Voss: This Is What I Do In A Negotiation

“Terrorists have moms,” he said.

Jeffrey Schilling was kidnapped in the Philippines and held hostage for 7 and a half months. The terrorists said they were torturing him.

But Chris Voss didn’t fall for it.

Chris is a former FBI hostage negotiator and the author of, “Never Split the Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It.”

“Find a way to mention his mother’s concern for him,” Chris’ boss said.

“I remember thinking, ‘That’s the dumbest idea I ever heard. A terrorist is going to care about this guys mother?’”

“But my boss had great insight. And I didn’t see any downside to it. So in the middle of the negotiation I said, ‘Ya know Jeff’s mom is really worried about him.’”

“What happened next?” I asked.

“This murderous, sociopathic terrorist said, ‘His mother knows about this? You tell his mother he’s OK.’”

Months later, Jeffrey came home.

Some hostage negotiation tactics won’t work in business or with your wife.

But these 5 tactics will…

1. Use the “hand-cuff method”:

Use this line when someone yells at you: “I can’t hear you when you’re yelling at me.”

The logic simple. People yell when they want you to listen.

But if you eliminate their reward (being heard), then they have to comply. And you’ll never get yelled at again.

 

2. Push past threats:

“People who make threats always leave themselves an out,” Chris said.

But the truth is they need you. If you’re not talking, there’s no deal. They could lose out on a sale, a new employee, or millions of dollars.

“The point of a negotiation is to find out how much money is on the table,” Chris said. “You have to push the other side as far as they’ll go… without insulting them.”

3. Gain the upper hand 100% of the time:

“You can gain the upper hand by giving respect first,” Chris said.

Which a lot of people are afraid to do…

“But that’s exactly why you gain the upper hand,” Chris said.

4. Become less busy:

Rest is the new hustle.

“Anytime you slow down to do things more deliberately, you save time.” Chris calls this, “The delay that saves time.”

5. Show fearlessness

Fear can be useful. But not in a negotiation. “Showing fearlessness is a great way to inspire confidence in you from the other side,” Chris said.

Forget what you have to lose. And focus on the reward.

I can’t afford to lose all my money again. So if you’re on this list… don’t listen to this interview:

A) you’re related to me

B) you work with me

C) you want to sell me something

Everybody else is welcome.

• The negotiation tactic used against Mark Cuban [49:36]
• Find out the negotiation tactic I use personally [42:08]
• How to avoid the most dangerous negotiation [4:58]

 

Links and Resources:

• Read his book, “Never Split the Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It“
• Visit his website, The Black Swan Group 
• Follow him on Facebook + Twitter

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The 20 Habits of Eventual Millionaires

 

I read book after book but the advice seemed awful. And even the advice that was clearly good (“eat better”) there was almost zero chance I would follow.

I don’t know how to take good advice. I don’t know how to give it. And all of this talk about “habits” seems beyond me.

I was all alone with no one around to police the spill of my primitive desires.

Trapped in that nightmare world between: “If only this had happened” and “if this happens, I will be a success” without thinking that right now is when things can be different.

The negative things I was doing were weighing on me, causing me anxiety, stress, darkness, draining me of energy, and I refused to take responsibility for them.

So I tried something. Happiness is when you do good things for yourself, but do them just a little each day – else disappointment and failure.

Every day I’d take a random habit that I knew was good (see the attached 20) and I’d try to improve it a little. Just “1%”.

Following these habits was not about me. I didn’t see success in me.

I noticed I was impacting others when I followed good habits. A good habit is the pebble dropped in the ocean that ripples out to every shore.

Each habit compounds over time. Each habit is a super power.

Self worth is a myth. We’re in this together. Our actions are the impact everyone else feels.

Be the person that everyone remembers.

These 20 habits are the seeds. You plant them, you water them, some grow, you grow, everyone grows. I only know this because I had to do it.

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You can find the original post here: The 20 Habits of Eventual Millionaires

Related Reading: The Ultimate Cheat Sheet For Investing All of Your Money

 

 

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Fight or Flight Investing

If you’ve ever followed anything I’ve written or interviews I’ve done, you’ve probably heard me say that the stock market is a scam.

And that’s because, quite frankly, it largely is.

So many public companies manipulate their numbers, so many mutual funds and stockbrokers have a bunch of hidden fees. All these investment news sources preach that the stock market is going to collapse, or that you should buy this or that stock that’s going to get you 6,000% gains.

Don’t fall for any of it. It’s all a scam.

But that doesn’t mean you can’t make money in the stock market.

In my years of investing, I’ve probably tried every strategy there is out there. There are only about three that I really care about. This is one of them.

In fact, if I were to die tomorrow, this is the strategy I would tell my children to use to invest the money from my life insurance policy.

And the best part is you’ll never hear any investors talk about this strategy, because it goes against everything they believe about investing.

So here it is. This is one of the most important strategies, if not THE most important, that I could give you. This is what you should always look for when investing.

1) Find the irrational fear

In 2008, the oils markets were crashing and so everyone thought that Texas and California were about to declare bankruptcy. Everyone was talking about it on TV and in the news.

They had no idea what they were talking about.

It’s not even legal for a state to declare bankruptcy; the founding fathers wrote it into the Constitution.

The only way a state can even get out of paying back a debt is if first they fired every single public servant and every public school teacher, etc.

I would go on CNBC and have these arguments with people. I’d go on and say that it wasn’t going to happen. That it wasn’t ALLOWED to happen.

But still these guys on CNBC—professional pundits and investors!—could not wrap their minds around this.

The point is, there’s always an irrational fear somewhere in the market. It’s the financial version of fight or flight.

Except—and this is the key—investors ALWAYS run.

Fight that fear, and you’ll be surrounded by solid opportunities at a huge discount.

Which brings me to…

2) Find assets or stocks that are discounted because of the fear

Especially when there’s no actual risk.

Here’s a funny story. There was this company based in China with the stock symbol HOGS.

Then around 2007 or 2008, the swine flu became this huge health concern. All of a sudden, that HOGS stock was down 20% in ONE DAY.

All because everybody for some reason thought that the swine flu was going to affect this company that had absolutely nothing to do with it.

Here’s another story.

In 2008, during that time that everyone was afraid Texas was going to go bankrupt because of the crashing oil market, I found a bunch of bonds issued by Texas towns and counties that were trading at a huge discount. They didn’t even rely on the oil industry for most of their revenue. They were just being caught up in the fear.

So not only was there this irrational fear that Texas towns would go bankrupt, but it was temporarily making these specific assets that had nothing to do with this story way cheaper than they should have been.

It presented an incredible opportunity to buy.

That’s exactly the kind of thing I’m looking for. That’s exactly what I’m always researching. That’s what I would recommend my kids to do and that’s where I think people should put their money.

3) Only put your money in investments where the price is at a huge discount to the underlying assets

In other words, if a company has $100 worth of assets, and you could buy it for $70, that’s a great investment.

Let’s look at those Texas bonds again. Not only were they trading at a major discount, they were also paying a huge tax advantage yield.

I want my investments to be discounted below the value of the assets they own. I want that extra margin of safety. It’s a double discount on the underlying assets. I don’t pay full price for my investments.

That’s how people get rich. That’s my favorite way of investing. And I’m not alone. The richest investors in the world do this as well. Bill Gates. Warren Buffett. Carl Icahn. George Soros. Etc. They all do this.

But you don’t have to be a millionaire or billionaire, or even wealthy, to make this strategy  work for you. In fact, it’s one of the safest strategies I know.

Over time, the stock market has averaged just 7% per year. But you could safely and consistently beat that.

So why wouldn’t you?

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I’ve recently released a brand new report explaining this strategy in detail. It shows the EXACTLY what and where to find these investments that you’ll never have to pay full price for. Learn more here.

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Last Texts of the Dying

I wanted to have an adventure. I’m an explorer.

I woke up and dragged my kids out of bed and said we were going for a walk. They screamed “WHY!?”

“SHUT UP!” I yelled back.

We zigged and zagged through Chinatown until we found an obscure alley that I had read about: Cortlandt Alley.

In the alley there was a shaft elevator that was open. Some people were inside it.

It’s also the smallest museum in New York City.

Three walls, four or five exhibits per wall. There was one exhibit in particular I wanted to see: the final iPhone texts of people who were about to die. 

 

 

“Cool!” my kids said. And I was a cool dad for a nano-second.

I knew about this place because of the 2006 US Memory Champion.

Josh Foer is an explorer. First he was sent, as a journalist, to cover the memory championships.

Then he said, “I can do this!” And he trained for years until he won the championship himself (imagine being shown 5 decks of cards in random order for a few seconds and then saying out loud the exact order of the cards).

Then he got a $1.2 million advance to write “Moonwalking with Einstein” about the shady, and often violent, super-memory subculture.

And finally, he became a full-time explorer, devoting his efforts and the efforts of thousands of volunteers who help him, to collecting the 10,000 most interesting places of Earth.

Including, in his brand new book, “Atlas Obscura,” the “museum” that I visited with my kids.

 

The Explorer’s Code: 

I wanted to wake each morning, not anxious about my day anymore. Not worried about what so-and-so would say, or where my career was going, or what was I going to write today.

My only job each day is to explore something new.

So I called up Josh and asked him how I could be an explorer. He told me.

 

– Have a Mission

Every day, whether it’s “be creative today.” Or “go some place you’ve never been” or “talk to ten random strangers”, make a mission.

Learn something new.

Missions are for people who DO. Mission statements are for people who DON’T.

 

– Uncomfortable Situation

Try to put yourself in as many uncomfortable situations as possible.

“For instance,” he said, “you should apply for a temp job. See what it’s like.”

Or maybe one day you and a friend can make a bet: who can get the furthest out of town with just $100.

The uncomfortable zone is where you find out who you are, the comfort zone is where you sleep.

Task: make a list of uncomfortable situations. Stretch the idea muscle.

 

– Partners/Team

Josh has 100s of people who submit items to Atlas Obscura and atlasobscura.com. “There’s over 10,000 weird and obscure places on there now.”

He also started it with two partners.

Even superheroes need a team. Superman still needed the Justice League. Luke Skywalker still needed Han Solo and Princess Leia. Luke Cage needs Iron Fist and Jessica Jones.

Who are on your team? Are they good people? Do you each have your super power?

I am constantly looking for my team of fellow explorers.

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“Try to experience wonder every day,” Josh told me.

A few months ago, my mission was to throw out everything I owned.

What would it be like after 40 years of collecting things, to own absolutely nothing.

And a few months before that, my mission was to track down someone who had disappeared from my life.

I failed at that mission. But I experienced wonder along the way.

And today, I’m going to change my life forever. I will text you about it.

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Related Reading: This Is What You Do When The World Falls Apart…

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How To Find Your Calling (or…what I learned by accident because of AirBnB)

He died. He was giving a speech, sat down, and the next thing… he was dead.

They called an ambulance. They got paramedics. They did that thing. They brought him back to life. But his body didn’t like living.

He died again. Eight more times they used machines to convince the machine in his body that we call a heart, to come back to life.

Please come back to life, the machines said to his heart. And finally his heart decided to stay.

After that, things changed. Like they often do when we die at the age of 47.

“There are three things,” Chip Conley, now the head of hospitality for AirBnB, told me, “a job, a career, and a calling.”

“I had been building and running hotels for 20 years. It was my calling to be in the hospitality business. I built over 50 hotels. But it was starting to feel like a job.”

“When I died, I realized I couldn’t do it anymore. I had to go back to my calling.”

Within a few years he had sold his business. He had nothing left to do.

“I had faith in my calling, though,” Chip said. “Something would happen.”

And it did. It did.

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Adam wrote me. He was my Airbnb host. I’ve been in 4 different Airbnbs that Adam owns over the past three years.

So we knew each other. I only live in Airbnbs and I know many of the regular hosts in New York City.

“I’m having a special guest in the apartment right downstairs from you,” Adam wrote me. “He’s the head of all hospitality for Airbnb. Would you like to meet?’

Yes, very much so. I had spent 90% of my life in Airbnbs over the prior three years and just about 100% in the prior year. In 2014 I even wrote an article, “10 Ways to Improve Airbnb.”

Adam made the introduction. Chip Conley, the man who had died a few years earlier and sold his hotel business, responded.

“Should I bring a bottle of wine?” he said. He came upstairs and we started to talk.

“Brian Chesky, the founder of Airbnb, called me and asked me if I wanted to be the head of hospitality. Airbnb was a tech company, it wasn’t used to being a hospitality company.”

“When I ran 50 hotels, hospitality was my main focus.”

“For each hotel, I had the hotel managers come up with five adjectives for what that hotel would be.”

“Maybe the adjectives might be: funky, hip, modern, clean, rock & roll.”

“Every employee, even the housekeepers, would keep those adjectives in mind in whatever they did. And, if possible, we even made sure the five senses the customers would experience in the hotels would match the five adjectives.”

“This is a great idea,” I said, “You can even apply ideas like this to writing a book. Or even building a career for yourself. What five adjectives do you want your life, or the objects you create, or your relationships, be used to describe it.”

“Absolutely,” Chip said.

So he went to Airbnb to start creating an atmosphere of hospitality among the hosts. He had found his way back to his life’s calling.

I had felt it. Since 2013, Now I live in them. Now they are home.

All because Chip died.

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“How do you find your life’s calling?” I asked him.

“What did you love doing when you were 6, 8, 10 years old,” he said.

“Like I had one friend who even at 6 was making mudpies as if they were real pies. Then she became a lawyer but was always unhappy.”

“So she quit being a lawyer and is now one of the biggest pastry chefs in the world.”

“For me, I was always pretending to run a restaurant in my house. I always wanted to be in the hospitality business.”

I thought back to when I was ten years old. I was writing short stories. And when I was 12 I even wrote an article in the newspaper interviewing politicians.

You find your interests from back then and see how they age into the current day.

“Find the thing you did where you lost all sense of time while you are doing it,” Chip told me.

“Remember the equation from Victor Frankl’s ‘Man’s Search for Meaning‘,” he said.

“Despair = Suffering – Meaning.”

“Find the things that bring you meaning. Suffering is always there in this world. But if you have meaning, you will have less despair.

“You will find your calling.”

Sometimes even now I find myself doing things where I feel more ‘job’ than ‘calling’. I try to adjust where I can but it can be difficult. I guess a little bit at a time and eventually you can move your life into that calling.

I said to him. “This is too good. Do you mind if I record the conversation?”

He said, “Sure.” So I did. I’ve been recording conversations with people ever since I was ten years old.

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When I was 26, he said, I wanted to be an entrepreneur. I found my first little motel and called it The Phoenix.

“I knew that whatever I did, I wanted to be creative and to have freedom. I tell everyone to write down the two most important qualities about their calling and check back with it over the years.

“Eventually I felt like what I was doing was the opposite of creativity and freedom.”

“And that’s when I had that experience of flatlining. That was my body’s way of telling me I had to change. So I got rid of my hotels.”

“What if you are sitting in a cubicle and listening to this and wondering how you can find that creativity and freedom for yourself – it all sounds good BUT – kids, responsibilities, age, etc. you feel are blocking you?”

“Then get back to what you loved when you were younger. Start to brainstorm how you can bring that even a little bit into your life now. And a little bit more the next day. And so on.”

“Try many things,” he said, “One thing I realized is that quantity = quality. People think it’s one or the other but it’s not. When you have a lot of quantity of ideas and things you are trying, you will find quality.”

This reminded me of my approach to exercising my idea muscle. If you write down ten ideas a day, you have 3,650 ideas in a year. And maybe one or two will be good.

I got excited about my ideas to improve Airbnb. I said, “Can I show you the ideas?” I had written the list in 2014 but maybe they would still apply.

“Of course!” he said.

We went through each one. For some of them he said, “Hold on! Wait for the announcement coming soon.”

We lost track of time while doing the interview and eventually he had to go.

“You know,” he said, “I saw something about you a few weeks ago and thought you would be a great speaker for our event in November – the Airbnb Open.”

“And then Adam told me yesterday, by coincidence, you were staying in the apartment right above me.”

“That’s funny,” I said.

“I love it when serendipity happens,” he said, as he was getting ready to go. “You have to speak at the conference.”

“I will!”

After he left I thought about what I most wanted to do when I was a kid.

I wanted to be a spy.

On what? I don’t know. I just wanted to look at other people and follow them without them knowing. To observe and learn all of their secrets and then report back to “HQ”.

It would be a little dangerous, I always thought. But I would survive. And save the world.

Bit by bit I’m doing it. My calling.

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Related reading: How to be THE LUCKIEST GUY ON THE PLANET in 4 Easy Steps

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The One Thing You Really Do Need

I’m feeling sick. I think I need to vomit all the facts stuffed down my face by a bogus educational system.

We spend our lives thinking facts are important. Facts change. Facts are often wrong. Facts have often killed us.

Anyway, I forget most facts I’ve ever learned.

Like, “What is RNA?” I have no idea. When did Rome fall? No clue.

I’ve outsourced boring facts to Google. Google can tell me what happened and when. And how to get there. And when an unknown phone number calls me, Google can usually show me who it is.

I’m afraid of unknown phone numbers. Google: please protect me!

People say, “Google is making us stupid because we don’t use that part of our brain anymore.”

I don’t really want to use that part of my brain. I’m fine with it.

I don’t need anything. Well, I take it back: Curiosity.

And here’s why:

– Happiness.

Dopamine is being released because I am in anticipation of the reward of curiosity getting satisfied.

Higher dopamine equals greater happiness, better brain and heart health. Live longer.

– Trip to wonderland.

The other day I passed a clothing store. There was a book in the window. I got curious. I researched the book, the author, his biography, his quotes.

I became a better person as a result. Future post.

– Creative.

It makes me more creative.

I recently read a book about the life of Agatha Christie. She didn’t say, “OK, the plot of my next book is A, B, and C.”

She viewed a book as a set of problems. “How do I make X seem like the killer when Y might really be the killer?”

This led to 500,000,000 books sold and enormous financial success. Questions and not facts. Curiosity and not knowledge.

Andy Warhol asked, “How can I take a soup can and make it art?”

Steve Jobs asked, “How can I take a phone and make it amazing?”

– Community.

I was curious once about “The blue books.” A publisher of tiny blue books in the 1920s that sold 100s of millions of copies.

Turns out there’s an entire community on Facebook dedicated to the research and collection of these books. They answered my questions.

I studied the entire model of success behind those books. I used that model to help build my own success in self-publishing.

– Go beyond comfort zone.

Our comfort zone is where we are safe in the womb of life. Our real self is everything beyond that.

The Curiosity Zone is bigger than the Comfort Zone.

Every time you are curious, you punch another hole in that comfort zone.

– Keeps us alive.

The entire reason the species exists is because we roamed beyond the plains of East Africa and explored.

We’re the only species to explore the entire world. Why? Because our brain adapted the ability to be curious.

Specifically, the prefrontal cortex (the most recently evolved part of our brain) is responsible for the dopamine rewards of curiosity.

Cultivating the curiosity muscle is actually the muscle that has given this species life for the past 200,000 years.

It teaches us how to adapt, how to learn what to be wary of, how to learn what is good for us.

– Better relationships.

I can’t google why a loved one is upset at me. I have to be curious about it. Wonder. Maybe ask. Observe. Look for clues.

I may not know the answer. But when someone is crying or sad, I can sit down next to them. I can be there. Curiosity leads to empathy.

– All achievement in the world.

Orville and Wilbur Wright, owners of a small bike store, were up against a massive multi-million dollar plan by the government to create an airplane.

All of the government planes kept crashing. Despite all the known facts in the world.

Instead of giving up and saying, “We can’t beat the government – they have more money, people, scientists, resources” they simply asked, “what would happen if we made a bicycle with wings?”

Curiosity is the leap into the unknown. What you find there will change your life forever. Will make you fly.

– Prevent Alzheimer’s.

I mention that I keep forgetting things. And my 23andMe DNA results show that I have twice the risk of early-onset Alzheimer’s.

Fine.

But…it’s not facts that prevents Alzheimer’s. It’s being curious.

A crossword puzzle is not about memory. It starts first with asking questions: “What five letters fit these squares?”

Crossword puzzles and other similar games that start with curiosity have been shown to delay Alzheimers.

– Explore.

All I want to do is explore. I don’t want to sit behind a cubicle all my life wondering what life could have been like. I don’t want to feel bad about my life. I want to feel hopeful.

When I was younger I liked to write. I loved to read. I liked computers. I didn’t know anything about anything.

But I wanted to learn so I asked the questions. Sometimes that led me to crash and burn. But it always saved me in the end.

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Six months ago to the day I threw out all of my possessions except for three outfits, a computer, an iPad, and a phone.

These are still the only things I own. But I kept my curiosity. I try to exercise it every day.

It’s the only possession that lets me wake up in the morning and look forward to the new day. I have nothing left but curiosity.

What will happen today? I have no clue. Maybe I will hit the “I’m Feeling Lucky” button on my life.

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Related reading: 10 Things You Need to Know To Become a Great Leader

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